Luận án Tiến sĩ: Di cư, Biến đổi Khí hậu và Thất nghiệp tại Châu Á bởi Huỳnh Hiền Hải

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY …………………………. HUYNH HIEN HAI MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Ho Chi Minh City – 2023 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY …………………………. HUYNH HIEN HAI MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA Research Area: Economics Code: 9310101 DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Supervisors: Dr. Vo Hong Duc Assoc.

Ha Thi Thieu Dao Ho Chi Minh City – 2023 This dissertation is implemented at Ho Chi Minh city Open University Supervisors: 1. Vo Hong Duc 2. Ha Thi Thieu Dao Reviewer 1: ………………………………………………………………………………. This dissertation will be defended at Ho Chi Minh city Open University At ………………………………………………………………………………………….

date ………………………………………………………………………………………… The dissertation is stored at: - The library of Ho Chi Minh city Open University - The National library of Vietnam i DISSERTATION DECLARATION I, Huynh Hien Hai, certify that:  This dissertation has been substantially accomplished during enrolment in this degree.  This dissertation does not contain material which has been submitted for the award of any other degree of diploma in my name, in any university or other tertiary institution.  In the future, no part of this dissertation will be used in a submission in my name, for any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution without the prior of Ho Chi Minh city Open University and where applicable, any partner institution responsible for the joint-award of this degree.  This dissertation does not contain any material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text and where relevant, in the Authorship Declaration that follows.

 This dissertation does not violate or infringe any copyright, trademark, patent, or other rights whatsoever of any person.  This dissertation contain work under review for publication, some of which has been co-authors. Signature: Date: ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS For myself five years ago, that dreadful cave is symbolized by an academic journey through a PhD, the completion of which involves a great deal of preparation, trials and errors, discipline, perseverance, and coffee. Talking shortcuts is rarely an option and addressing constructive criticism becomes an integral aspect of my work.

Fortunately, the life of a PhD candidate has many rewarding facets. Being able to build and share valuable skills and experience as a youngster in a dynamic and international environment is one of them. At the Ho Chi Minh city Open University (OU), I am grateful to so many people for acquiring a combination of skills which were necessary to complete my studies and to prepare myself for future changes. Here is the utmost right place to thank them.

This dissertation has been examined by Dr. Vo Hong Duc (The University of Western Australia and Ho Chi Minh City Open University) and Assoc. Ha Thi Thieu Dao (Ho Chi Minh University of Banking). I would like to express my sincerest thanks to the two examiners for the valuable time they devoted to the assessment of my work.

Their comments, which range from general commendations to critical assessments on various aspects of the dissertation presentation, have motivated me greatly to strive for improved quality and clarity. Interestingly, I would like to thank my lecturers, my colleagues and many PhD students who have guided me, supported me in my PhD Journey and participated in the evaluation committee in the past steps of the dissertation. They have given to me many comments, encouragements, helpful advice and timely reminders that they have helped me become more and more mature in my research journey in the past, current and both in the future. I also especially thank the dissertation committees at the levels steps by steps for giving me helpful comments and advice.

My family plays no small part in the successful endeavor of this project. I thank my parents, my wife, my friends… whose support and understanding are always with me iii wherever my dreams lead me. Words alone are not sufficient to express what I owe people. I thus dedicate my dissertation work to them.

With all this said, I am eager to explore the next cave to find the next treasure in my life. Ho Chi Minh, 2023 Huynh Hien Hai iv SUMMARY OF DISSERTATION MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA This dissertation contributes to the literature on climatic factors, international migration, and unemployment in several ways. The motivations for the study emerge from practical circumstances and research gaps from the existing literature. Statistics reveal that Asia is ranked the second-largest region in the world in terms of the number of migrants, following Europe.

On the theoretical aspects, this study offers a comprehensive and systematic review of migration theories within the context of climate change and labor market unemployment. The study aims to provide a comprehensive review of relevant theories and empirical analyses to identify research gaps. Based on empirical results, this dissertation analyzes the influence of climatic factors on migration and investigates their impact on unemployment in Asian countries. This study also examines the effects of climatic factors on the labor market, including unemployment, in the short and long terms.

This study primarily focuses on climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and carbon dioxide emissions, which affect migration and unemployment. The study provides important empirical results pertaining to Asian countries, with a focus on both the short and long term. This study seeks to discover new findings related to the complex interactions among climate change, migration, and unemployment, especially at the macro-level in Asia. The dissertation starts with research objectives, contributions, the theoretical framework, and research questions.

It proceeds to provide definitions related to migration, climate change, and unemployment. The study also systematically synthesizes relevant issues which are then addressed in this dissertation, including the impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors on migration in Asia. In addition, the effects of migration on unemployment have also been investigated for Asian countries. The influence of climatic factors on unemployment has also been investigated in Asia.

v Contents CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION. Research objectives and questions. The value and contributions of the dissertation. Subject and scope.

20 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW .2 The climate change .2 Theories of migration .1 Laws of migration by Ravenstein (1885).2 The dual-sector model by Lewis (1954) .3 Lee’s Migration Model (1966).4 Harris – Todaro model (1969) .5 The new economics of labor migration model (1980s) .6 World Systems theory by Wallerstein (1974) .7 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (1992) .8 The drivers of migration by Black (2011) .9 Summary of theories linking climate change, migration and unemployment .3 Research gap and contributions .1 Climate change and migration .2 Migration and unemployment .3 Climate change and unemployment .4 Theoretical framework and research questions. 59 CHAPTER 3 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN ASIA .3 Methodology and data.4 Results and discusions: .2 Collinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests. 94 CHAPTER 4 THE EFFECTS OF MIGRATION ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA .3 Methodology and data.2 Collinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests .3 Results of GMM estimations:. 125 CHAPTER 5 THE INFLUENCES OF THE CLIMATIC FACTORS ON UNMEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA .1 The climate change .2 The unemployment rate .3 Methodology and data.2 Empirical results – Effects of climate factors to unemployment using GLS estimation in short-run techniques .4 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using in long-run techniques by FMOLS, DOLS and CCR .5 Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by upper-income countries group .6 Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by lower-income countries group .5 Results and discussions.

172 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS .1 Conclusions and contributions .1 National policies on climate change .2 National policies on international migration and climatic migration .3 National policies on unemployment. 197 References 199 APPENDIX 1 LIST THE SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES. 214 APPENDIX 2 ECONOMETRIC RESULTS. 216 4 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Key data by the World Migration Reports between 2000 and 2020.1 Theories of migration defined by level of analysis .1 Empirical researches on the relationship between climate change and migration 69 Table 3.2 List of proposed variables .5 Autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test .6 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to migration using S.1 Empirical researches on the relationship between migration and unemployment .2 List of variables and data sources on migration flows and unemployment rate .5 Autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test .6 Empirical results – Effects of the migration on the unemployment rate using GMM estimations .1 Empirical researches on the relationship between climate change and unemployment.2 List of variables and data sources on climatic factors and unemployment rate 151 Table 5.5 Multiplier magnifies the variance VIF .6 The autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests.7 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using GLS estimation .8 Panel unit root test results .9 Kao panel co-integration test .10 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations .11 Panel unit root test results .12 Kao panel co-integration test .13 Empirical results – Effects of climate factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by upper-income countries group .14 Panel unit root test results .15 Kao panel co-integration test .16 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by lower-income countries group .1 A summary of the hypotheses and results.

175 5 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 International migrant stock at mid-year in Asia 1990-2020 .2 The global international migrant stock by region 1990-2020 .3 The average unemployment rate in Asia countries 1991 - 2020 .1 The origin and destination factors in migration .2 The model of migration and unemployment by Harris-Todaro .3 The sustainable livelihoods framework.4 A sustainable livelihoods framework for the 21st century .5 Drivers of migration .7 Summarizes of the research process .1 The average unemployment rate on the labor force in Asia countries from 1991 to 2020.1 Working hours lost due to heat stress under a 1. 129 6 ABBREVIATION UN: United Nations ILO: International Labor Organization WB: World Bank IOM: International Organization for Migration IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change OECD: The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development GLS: Generalized least squares GMM: The generalized method of moments FMOLS: Fully modified ordinary least square DOLS: The panel dynamic ordinary least square CCR: The Canonical Cointegration Regression 7 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION In this chapter, this chapter will present basic contents of the dissertation, including an overview, research objectives, question objectives, and the value and significances of this study. Each of these aspects is summarized as below. Overview Since the earliest times, human beings have also been on the move.

Individuals change places for a variety of different reasons, such as trying to find employment or better economic conditions, coming together with their family, or reasons of education. Some people migrate to evade conflicts, tyranny, violence, or human rights insults, whereas others are compelled to move due to the pessimistic influences of climate change other environmental reasons. The current figures show that, as of mid-year 2019, the worldwide data of international migrants reached 172 million, with the international migrant stock constituting 3.5 per cent of the world population. This rate is much higher than 2.

This leads to a global problem of migration management in today's society in order to predict and propose appropriate policies for international migration waves. In 2019, international migrants who were 19 years old and younger and residing in the country/region consisted of 13.9 per cent of the total share (UN, 2020).1 illustrated the key data by the World Migration Reports which compare figures of migrants between 2000 and 2019.1 Key data by the World Migration Reports between 2000 and 2020 Source: United Nations (2020) With a population of around 4.6 billion, Asia contributed to over 40 per cent of the international migrants around the world in 2019, which amounted to 111 million.