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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY …………………………. HUYNH HIEN HAI MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA DOCTORAL DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS Ho Chi Minh City, 2023 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY …………………………. HUYNH HIEN HAI MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA Major: Economics Code : 9310101 DOCTORAL DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS Supervisors: Dr. Vo Hong Duc Assoc.

Ha Thi Thieu Dao Ho Chi Minh City, 2023 DISSERTATION DECLARATION I, Huynh Hien Hai, certify that:  This dissertation has been substantially accomplished during enrolment in this degree.  This dissertation does not contain material which has been submitted for the award of any other degree of diploma in my name, in any university or other tertiary institution.  In the future, no part of this dissertation will be used in a submission in my name, for any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution without the prior of Ho Chi Minh city Open University and where applicable, any partner institution responsible for the joint-award of this degree.  This dissertation does not contain any material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text and where relevant, in the Authorship Declaration that follows.

 This dissertation does not violate or infringe any copyright, trademark, patent, or other rights whatsoever of any person.  This dissertation contain work under review for publication, some of which has been co-authors. Signature Huynh Hien Hai i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS For myself five years ago, that dreadful cave is symbolized by an academic journey through a PhD, the completion of which involves a great deal of preparation, trials and errors, discipline, perseverance, and coffee. Talking shortcuts is rarely an option and addressing constructive criticism becomes an integral aspect of my work.

Fortunately, the life of a PhD candidate has many rewarding facets. Being able to build and share valuable skills and experience as a youngster in a dynamic and international environment is one of them. At the Ho Chi Minh city Open University (OU), I am grateful to so many people for acquiring a combination of skills which were necessary to complete my studies and to prepare myself for future changes. Here is the utmost right place to thank them.

This dissertation has been supervised by Dr. Vo Hong Duc (The University of Western Australia and Ho Chi Minh City Open University) and Assoc. Ha Thi Thieu Dao (Ho Chi Minh University of Banking). I would like to express my sincerest thanks to the two supervisors for the valuable time they devoted to the assessment of my work.

Their comments, which range from general commendations to critical assessments on various aspects of the dissertation presentation, have motivated me greatly to strive for improved quality and clarity. Interestingly, I would like to thank my lecturers, my colleagues and many PhD students who have guided me, supported me in my PhD Journey and participated in the evaluation committee in the past steps of the dissertation. They have given to me many comments, encouragements, helpful advice and timely reminders that they have helped me become more and more mature in my research journey in the past, current and both in the future. I also especially thank the dissertation committees at the levels steps by steps for giving me helpful comments and advice.

My family plays no small part in the successful endeavor of this project. I thank my parents, my wife, my friends… whose support and understanding are always with me ii wherever my dreams lead me. Words alone are not sufficient to express what I owe people. I thus dedicate my dissertation work to them.

With all this said, I am eager to explore the next cave to find the next treasure in my life. Ho Chi Minh city, 2023 Huynh Hien Hai iii SUMMARY OF DISSERTATION MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA This dissertation contributes to the literature on climatic factors, international migration, and unemployment in several ways. The motivations for the study emerge from practical circumstances and research gaps from the existing literature. Statistics reveal that Asia is ranked the second-largest region in the world in terms of the number of migrants, following Europe.

On the theoretical aspects, this study offers a comprehensive and systematic review of migration theories within the context of climate change and labor market unemployment. The study aims to provide a comprehensive review of relevant theories and empirical analyses to identify research gaps. Based on empirical results, this dissertation analyzes the influence of climatic factors on migration and investigates their impact on unemployment in Asian countries. This study also examines the effects of climatic factors on the labor market, including unemployment, in the short and long terms.

This study primarily focuses on climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and carbon dioxide emissions, which affect migration and unemployment. The study provides important empirical results pertaining to Asian countries, with a focus on both the short and long term. This study seeks to discover new findings related to the complex interactions among climate change, migration, and unemployment, especially at the macro-level in Asia. The dissertation starts with research objectives, contributions, the theoretical framework, and research questions.

It proceeds to provide definitions related to migration, climate change, and unemployment. The study also systematically synthesizes relevant issues which are then addressed in this dissertation, including the impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors on migration in Asia. In addition, the effects of migration on unemployment have also been investigated for Asian countries. The influence of climatic factors on unemployment has also been investigated in Asia.

The empirical results have some new findings. In particular, the rainfall significantly and negatively affects migration. iv The previous rainfall has a positive effect on migration in the two groups of countries, but the effect on the upper income group is stronger. The CO2 emissions has a positive relationship with migration.

The previous CO2 emissions has a negative effect on migration, the effect on the lower income group is stronger. The previous migration shows a positive effect for both groups of countries, but the magnitude for low-income countries is stronger. The previous unemployment tends to be increasingly the unemployment. Migration shows a positive impact on the unemployment in the lower-income countries.

Previous migration plays an important role in reducing unemployment in upper-group, but increase unemployment in lower-group. In short terms, the temperature, CO2 have negative affect to unemployment, and the rainfall has positively affected to unemployment. In long terms, the CO2 tends to diminishingly affect to unemployment in Asian countries. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Dissertation declaration.

ii Summary of dissertation. iv Table of contents. 1 List of tables. 6 List of figures.

Research objectives and questions. The value and contributions of the dissertation. Subject and scope .5 Analytic framework and research questions. 24 CHAPTER 2 DEFINITIONS AND RESEARCH GAPS .2 The climate change .2 Research gap and contributions .1 Climate change and migration .2 Migration and unemployment .3 Climate change and unemployment.

35 CHAPTER 3 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN ASIA .2 Theories and literature review .1 Laws of migration by Ravenstein (1885).2 Lee’s Migration Model (1966).3 The drivers of migration by Black (2011) .3 Methodology and data.4 Results and discusions: .2 Collinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests. 66 CHAPTER 4 THE EFFECTS OF MIGRATION ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA .2 Theories and literature review .1 The dual-sector model by Lewis (1954) .2 Harris – Todaro model (1969) .3 The new economics of labor migration model (1980s) .4 World Systems theory by Wallerstein (1974) .3 Methodology and data.2 Collinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests .3 Results of GMM estimations: .4 2SLS tests of the impact of unemployment on migration. 98 CHAPTER 5 THE INFLUENCES OF THE CLIMATIC FACTORS ON UNMEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA .1 The climate change .2 The unemployment rate .2 Theories and literature review .1 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework .2 Theory of environment economics by Turner (1993) .3 Methodology and data.2 Empirical results – Effects of climate factors to unemployment using GLS estimation in short-run techniques .4 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using in long-run techniques by FMOLS, DOLS and CCR .5 Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by upper-income countries group .6 Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by lower-income countries group .5 Results and discussions. 139 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS .1 Conclusions and contributions .1 National policies on climate change .2 National policies on international migration and climatic migration .3 National policies on unemployment.

158 APPENDIX 1 LIST THE SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES. 173 APPENDIX 2 ECONOMETRIC RESULTS. 175 5 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Key data by the World Migration Reports between 2000 and 2020.2 Empirical researches on the relationship between climate change and migration 46 Table 3.5 Autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test .6 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to migration using S.1 Empirical researches on the relationship between migration and unemployment 81 Table 4.4 Autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test .5 Empirical results – Effects of the migration on the unemployment rate using GMM estimations .6 Results of 2SLS test of unemployment on migration .1 Empirical researches on the relationship between climate change and unemployment.4 Multiplier magnifies the variance VIF .5 The autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests.6 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using GLS estimation .7 Panel unit root test results .8 Kao panel co-integration test .9 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations .10 Panel unit root test results .11 Kao panel co-integration test .12 Empirical results – Effects of climate factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by upper-income countries group .13 Panel unit root test results .14 Kao panel co-integration test .15 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by lower-income countries group .1 A summary of the hypotheses and results. 142 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 International migrant stock at mid-year in Asia 1990-2020 .2 The global international migrant stock by region 1990-2020 .3 The average unemployment rate in Asia countries 1991 - 2020 .5 Summarizes of the research process .1 The origin and destination factors in migration .2 Drivers of migration .1 The model of migration and unemployment by Harris-Todaro .1 Working hours lost due to heat stress under a 1.2 The sustainable livelihoods framework.3 A sustainable livelihoods framework for the 21st century.

108 8 ABBREVIATION CCR : The Canonical Cointegration Regression COVID-19 : Coronavirus disease DOLS : The panel dynamic ordinary least square EU : European Union FMOLS : Fully modified ordinary least square GLS : Generalized least squares GMM : The generalized method of moments ILO : International Labor Organization IOM : International Organization for Migration IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NASA : National Aeronautics and Space Administration NELM : The New Economics of Labour Migration OECD : The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development UN : United Nations UNFCC : United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WB : World Bank 9 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION In this chapter, this chapter will present basic contents of the dissertation, including an overview, research objectives, question objectives, and the value and significances of this study. Each of these aspects is summarized as below. Overview There are many reasons that could lead people to migrate to another place, both internal or international migration. There are five primary macro-level drivers of migration, including economic, demographic, social, political, and environmental factors (Black et al.

Researchers still focus heavily on economic aspects, demographics, social capital, or political issues without paying enough attention to environmental and climate reasons (Hoffmann et al.