Luận án Tiến sĩ: Dự tính khí hậu và khí hậu tương tự ở Đông Nam Á - Nguyễn Thị Tuyết

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT VIET NAM INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY, HYDROLOGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE NGUYEN THI TUYET A STUDY ON CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION AND CLIMATE ANALOG IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PHD THESIS ON CLIMATE CHANGE Ha Noi - 2020 luan an MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT VIET NAM INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY, HYDROLOGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE NGUYEN THI TUYET A STUDY ON CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION AND CLIMATE ANALOG IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Major: Climate Change Code : 9440221 PHD THESIS ON CLIMATE CHANGE Thesis Author Primary Supervisor Second Supervisor ! Nguyen Thi Tuyet Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh Prof. Phan Van Tan Ha Noi - 2020 luan an ! i! COMMITMENT ! I commit that the thesis is my own research. The results shown in the thesis are honest, objective and have not been defended at any degree level.

I commit that all help with completing the thesis is acknowledged, and references in the thesis are fully sourced. Ha Noi, …………… 2020 AUTHOR Nguyen Thi Tuyet luan an ! ii! ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ! I would like to send my sincere gratitude to my two supervisors: Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh and Prof. Phan Van Tan.

Without their great guidance and teaching, I could not complete my thesis. I would also want to send my gratitude to the training institution – Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN) and my workplace – Viet Nam Institute for Development Strategies (VIDS) who have been always to best facilitate my PhD study. I would be much grateful for the Department of Space and Applications, USTH, which provides the HILO cluster where I could implement the calculations, analysis and visualization of my PhD thesis’ results, and for the Research group for Remote sEnsing and MOdeling of Surface and ATmosphere (REMOSAT) lab under the leadership of Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh, USTH for facilitating my PhD study.

I would express gratitude to the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/ Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA) project, of which observed and model data were used in my thesis. Last but not least, I would like to send my deep thanks to my family and friends who have kept encouraging me as well as facilitating my study. Ha Noi, …………… 2020 AUTHOR Nguyen Thi Tuyet luan an ! iii! CONTENT ! COMMITMENT. iii! LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS.

v! LIST OF TABLES. x! LIST OF FIGURES. xii! LIST OF ANNEX. 1! CHAPTER 1 – LITERATURE REVIEW ON REGIONAL CLIMATE DOWNSCALING AND CLIMATE ANALOG.

42! CHAPTER 2 – OBSERVED DATA, NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS AND METHODOLOGY. Evaluation on performance of multi-model experiments. Projection on temperature and precipitation change. Climate distance formulation.

65! CHAPTER 3 – PERFORMANCE OF MULTI-MODEL EXPERIMENTS IN luan an ! iv! SOUTHEAST ASIA. Performance of downscaling experiments in SEA. Performance of downscaling experiments in Viet Nam. 86! CHAPTER 4 – CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION AND CLIMATE ANALOG IN SOUTHEAST ASIA.

Projected changes of temperature and rainfall in SEA. Relocation of cities’ climate and climate analog in SEA. Relocation of cities’ climate and climate analog in Viet Nam. 121! CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.

125! LIST OF PUBLICATIONS. 150! luan an ! v! LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank AOGCMs Atmosphere – Ocean General Circulation Models Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data APHRODITE Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources AR5 The Fifth Assessment Report BATS Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme BAU Business As Usual Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security under CCAFS/ CGIAR the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research CCAM Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model CCRS-MSS Centre for Climate Research Singapore of the Meteorological Service Singapore CDO Climate Data Operators CFS Climate Forecast System CH Central Highland CLM Community Land Model CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CNRM-CM5 Coupled Global Climate Model, version 5 COP Conference of the Parties CORDEX Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment CRU Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research luan an ! vi! Organization CSIRO-MK36 CSIRO Mark 36 CTL Control simulation DECK Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts EC-EARTH European Community Earth system model ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation ERA40 ECMWF 40-year Re-Analysis ERA-Interim ECMWF Interim Reanalysis ESMs Earth System Models ESP Earth System Physics GCM Global Climate/Circulation Model GDP Gross domestic products Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System GFDL-ESM2M Model with MOM, version 4 component GHG Green House Gas GMT Generic Mapping Tools HadGEM2 Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2 IAM Integrated Assessment Model IC Initial conditions ICBC Initial and boundary conditions ICTP International Center for Theoretical Physics Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and IMHEN Climate Change INDC Intended National Determined Contribution IOD Indian Ocean Dipole luan an ! vii! IPCC International Panel on Climate Change L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version IPSL-CM 5A-LR 5A, low resolution LBC Lateral boundary conditions MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology MOHC Met Office Hadley Centre MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Max Planck Institute - Earth System Model – Medium MPI-ESM-MR Resolution MRI Meteorological Research Institute Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meterological MRI/JMA Agency Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General MRI-AGCM3.2H Circulation Model, version 3.2 (high resolution) NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NC North Central NCO NetCDF Operators NE North East NW North West NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction NHRCM Non-hydrostatic regional climate model NW North West PBL Planetary Boundary Layer PPE Perturbed Physics Ensemble PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies luan an ! viii! Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for PRUDENCE Defining European Climate change risks and Effects RCM Regional Climate Model RCPs Representative Concentration Pathways Regional Climate Model (established by the Earth RegCM System Physics section of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics) RMSD Root mean square difference RIHN Research Institute for Humanity and Nature RRD Red River Delta RSTD Ratio of standard deviation SA South America SC South Central SEA Southeast Asia SEACAM SEA Climate Analysis and Modeling Framework SEACLID Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling SED Standardized Euclidean Distance SPI Standardized Precipitation Index SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SST Sea Surface Temperature SV Southern Viet Nam T2m 2m mean air temperture TC Tropical cyclone Tn Minimum air temperture Tx Maximum air temperture TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission luan an ! ix! UM Unified Model UNDP United Nations Development Program United Nations Framework Convention on Climate UNFCCC Change UK The United Kingdom VnGP Viet Nam Gridded Precipitation Dataset WCRP World Climate Research Programme WGCM Working Group on Coupled Modeling WGI Working Group I WGII Working Group II WRF Weather Research & Forecasting ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! luan an ! x! LIST OF TABLES ! Table 2. Six driving GCMs and their short forms and abbreviations of the RCM experiments. Mean dissimilarities of temperature (Tdis) and precipitation (Pdis) over all reference grid points computed with six GCMs and six RCMs and their ensemble (ENS) values for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.

The number and percentage of “good” T2m and R stations of six experiments and their ENS in seven regions in Viet Nam. Best analog locations with the R_ENS and G_ENS experiments of the six cities and their respective climate distances (ClimD) for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8. Land ratio (%) in Southeast Asia for TP-, T- and P-novel climate, poor- and good- analogs resulted from the R_ENS and the G_ENS for the RCP4.5 at the end of the 21st century. Temperature change (ºC) projected by the CC Scenario and by the present study in the regions of Viet Nam, compared to the reference period 1986-2005.

As in Table 4.3 but for relative rainfall change (%). The original and best analog locations within the SEA domain of 78 cities in Viet Nam and their respective climate distances (CD) under the RCP4.5 scenarios, obtained with the ENS experiment. Land ratio (%) of disappearing climate, poor- and good-analogs within the Viet Nam domain projected from the CNRM, ECEA and ENS luan an ! xi! experiments for the RCP4.5 scenarios at the end of the 21st century. 121! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! luan an ! xii! LIST OF FIGURES ! Figure 0.

The World Map of Climate Risk Index 2019. Schematic illustration of alternative scenario formulations, from narrative storylines to quantitative formal models. Concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) across the RCPs. The grey area indicates the 98th and 90th percentiles (light/dark grey) of an earlier emission study (EMF-22).

The relationship of the international organizations related to climate research and the CMIP. Skematic diagram showing the components of a global climate model. Schematic discription of GCM CNRM-CM5. Basic structure of the GFDL Earth System Model.

Basic structure of the MPI ESM. Visualizing concept on climate downscaling. Schematic concept of climate analog. Illustration of the climate analog concept via the seasonal cycle of temperature in Ha Noi at the present (blue) and in the future (black) and the present cycle at an analog location (red).

Schematic concepts of good analog, poor analog and novel climate. Schematic concept of disappearing climate. Temperature change projection (deg. C) in Viet Nam under the RCP4.5 for a) the mid-century and b) the end of 21st century.

43! luan an ! xiii! Figure 1. As in Figure 1.13 but under the RCP8. As in Figure 1.13 but for rainfall change projection (%). As inin Figure 1.15 but under the RCP8.

The SEA domain with 365 circles showing the station locations in Thailand, Viet Nam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Laos where data are used for the analysis in this study. Topography over SEA (shaded, unit is in m) is obtained from the Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO30) data set. The Viet Nam domain with 66 circles showing the locations of the meteorological stations used in this study. Topography over Viet Nam is obtained from the Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO30) dataset (gray shading, in m).

Seasonal climatological cycles of T2m at six stations located in six cities in SEA for the baseline period (1986 – 2005). Observation (red octagol symboled lines) and the RCM outputs are denoted by colored lines. The range of the GCM outputs is shaded in light gray. RCM and GCM ensemble experiments are shown by the solid triangle-symboled black (R_ENS) and dashed – black (G_ENS) lines, respectively.

Similar as Figure 3.1 but for precipitation. Taylor diagram for 1986 – 2005 climatological monthly time series of temperature over the stations of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam and Myanmar. Bigger symbols are used for RCMs while smaller ones denote GCMs. Taylor diagram for 1986 – 2005 climatological monthly time series of precipitation over the stations of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, luan an ! xiv! Thailand, Viet Nam and Myanmar.

Bigger symbols are used for RCMs while smaller ones denote GCMs. The ranking scores of the 7 GCM and 7 RCM experiments based on the centered root mean square difference (rmsd) with the observation over the stations of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam and Myanmar for (a) temperature and (b) precipitation. Average temperature (ºC) for the period 1986-2005 in SEA by a) APHRODITE and b) the R_ENS. Average rainfall (mm day-1) for the period 1986-2005 in SEA by a) APHRODITE, b) the ENS.

Seasonal cycles of T2m observation data and model data. The data are monthly averaged for the period 1986 – 2005 over the stations in seven climatic sub-regions of Viet Nam. Seasonal cycles of precipitation observation data and model data. The data are monthly averaged for the period 1986 – 2005 over the stations in seven climatic sub-regions of Viet Nam.

Relationship between 1986 – 2005 observed 2m-temperature and different model outputs. The dots indicate the stations located in seven sub- regions in Viet Nam.