Holt 2012 prairiechickendissertation

BREEDING SEASON DEMOGRAPHICS OF A LESSER PRAIRIE-CHICKEN (TYMPANUCHUS PALLIDICINCTUS) POPULATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE by R. A Dissertation In WILDLIFE SCIENCE Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Texas Tech University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved Dr. Clint Boal Chair of Committee Dr. Philip Gipson Dr.

Nancy McIntyre Dr. David Haukos Dr. Randall DeYoung Dominick Casadonte Interim Dean of the Graduate School December 2012 Copyright 2012, Roger Holt Texas Tech University, R. Douglas Holt, December 2012 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I want to first thank my family for their support and encouragement throughout this endeavor.

I would like to acknowledge my late advisor, Dr. Warren Ballard, who gave me this opportunity and helped to get me going on the proper path to complete this degree. You have been missed. I offer my gratitude to Dr.

Clint Boal for stepping in and taking over advising responsibilities and helping me push this to the end. I want to thank all of my committee members for being patient with me as I pushed things to the final deadlines. I would also like to thank Dr. Matthew Butler for his help and assistance throughout this project.

You have been a great help in data analyses and dealing with the pursuit of this degree in spite of the other things that life throws at us during the process. I am especially thankful for your friendship. This project was completed entirely on private property and, as such, would not have been possible without the graciousness of all the landowners that I worked with in Gray and Hemphill counties. The Turley Ranch in Durham, Oklahoma provided a inexpensive place to stay throughout the project and it was the best field housing I have ever seen.

I would be remiss without thanking my friend, Blake Grisham and his lovely wife Elizabeth. I really want to thank you guys for taking me in on holidays when I was stuck in town. I really want to thank Blake for looking over my shoulder when I was attempting to analyze data using tests that I really didn’t know anything about and keeping me headed in the right direction. ii Texas Tech University, R.

Douglas Holt, December 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. vi LIST OF TABLES. viii LIST OF FIGURES. 8 SURVIVAL AND CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY OF LESSER PRAIRIE- CHICKENS (TYMPANUCHUS PALLIDICINCTUS) DURING THE BREEDING SEASON IN THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

22 Effects of Radiomarking. 23 Cause-specific Mortality. 24 Effects of Radiomarking. 25 Cause-specific Mortality.

34 iii Texas Tech University, R. Douglas Holt, December 2012 NEST AND CHICK SURVIVAL OF LESSER PRAIRIE-CHICKENS (TYMPANUCHUS PALLIDICINCTUS) IN THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. 56 Nest Location and Monitoring. 57 Nest Vegetation Characteristics.

63 Nest Location and Monitoring. 63 Nest Vegetation Characteristics. 71 A POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR LESSER PRAIRIE-CHICKENS (TYMPANUCHUS PALLIDICINCTUS) IN THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. 100 iv Texas Tech University, R.

Douglas Holt, December 2012 LITERATURE CITED. 101 FACTORS INFLUENCING THE EFFICACY OF ROAD-BASED LEK SURVEYS TO DETECT LESSER PRAIRIE-CHICKENS (TYMPANUCHUS PALLIDICINCTUS). 123 v Texas Tech University, R. Douglas Holt, December 2012 ABSTRACT Lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations have declined across their range since 1900 and are a candidate for listing as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

The historic lesser prairie-chicken range included all of the Texas panhandle. Currently, lesser prairie-chickens are found in 2 distinct populations in the northeastern and southwestern Texas panhandle. I conducted a 3-year study of breeding season demographics of lesser prairie-chickens on private properties in Gray and Hemphill counties (1 March-31 August, 2008-2010). I estimated male and female breeding bird survival, nest survival, and chick survival.

I used demographic data collected during this study to conduct a population viability analysis and estimate time until extinction in the northeastern Texas panhandle. I assessed the efficacy of traditional road-based lek surveys to monitor lesser prairie- chicken populations in the Rolling Plains and High Plains ecoregions of Texas. Male survival differed between seasons and age-classes. Juvenile male survival was 1.00) during the lekking season and 0.62) during the nesting season.

Adult male survival was 0.10) during the lekking season and 0.08) during the nesting season. Female survival did not differ with respect to season or age and was 0.13) for the entire breeding season. Nest survival was 0.05) during my study. Chick survival was lower between hatch and 14 days post hatch (0.01) than 15-63 days post-hatch (0.

Results of a population viability analysis indicated low population growth rate (=0.44) and time to extinction was 3.5 years under baseline conditions based on field data. Management vi Texas Tech University, R. Douglas Holt, December 2012 practices resulting in higher vital rates across the annual cycle resulted in higher population growth rates and longer times until extinction. The probability of detecting an active lek during road-based lek surveys was affected by wind speed, wind direction, and ecoregion.

Current assumptions of detectability of active leks are likely too great and should be adjusted based on environmental conditions. Due to the drastic reduction in lesser prairie-chicken population across their range, listing as threatened is likely. As such, it is important to collect demographic data and establish management plans for species recovery. The results of analyses based on the data collected during my study suggest that the lesser prairie-chicken population in the northeastern Texas panhandle are on the brink of extripation.

vii Texas Tech University, R. Douglas Holt, December 2012 LIST OF TABLES 1. Priority ranking matrix used to determine listing priority for species considered for protection under the Endangered Species Act by the U. Fish and Wildlife Service (adapted from U.

Fish and Wildlife Service 1983). Model description for models for assessment of duration of adjustment period following capture, handling, radio-marking, and release of lesser prairie-chickens captured over a 64-day period beginning 22 February 2008-2010 and for survival estimates on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA. Radio-marked lesser prairie-chickens by gender, age, year, and season used for survival estimation on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, during the reproductive season 2008-2010. Base models for assessment of duration of adjustment period following capture, handling, radio-marking, and release of lesser prairie-chickens captured over a 64-day period beginning 22 February 2008-2010 on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA.

Beta parameter estimates for competing models in base model set for assessment of duration of adjustment period following capture, handling, radio-marking, and release of lesser prairie-chickens captured over a 64-day period beginning 22 February 2008-2010 on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA. Effect models for assessment of duration of adjustment period following capture, handling, radio-marking, and release of lesser prairie-chickens captured over a 64-day period beginning 22 February 2008-2010 on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA. Beta parameter estimates for effect models for assessment of duration of adjustment period following capture, handling, radio-marking, and release of lesser prairie-chickens captured over a 64-day period beginning 22 February 2008-2010 on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA. Survival model results for radio-marked male lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas USA during the reproductive season 2008-2010.

Survival model results for radio-marked female lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, during the reproductive season 2008- 2010. 49 viii Texas Tech University, R. Douglas Holt, December 2012 2. Daily and seasonal survival estimates for radiomarked male lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, during the reproductive season 2008-2010.

Beta parameter estimates for competing models describing survival of female lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, during the reproductive season 2008-2010. Cause-specific mortality estimates for radiomarked lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas USA during the reproductive season 2008-2010. Descriptions of models used to examine nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010. Descriptions of models used to examine chick survival of lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010.

Observational data for nests or radiomarked and unmarked lesser prairie-chickens located on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010. Results of Wilcoxon Signed Rank tests for differences in vegetation at lesser prairie- chicken nests and paired random sites in the northeastern Texas panhandle 2008-2010. Mean values of vegetation data collected at lesser prairie-chicken nest sites and paired random locations in the northeastern Texas panhandle 2008-2010 where differences were significant based on Wilcoxon Signed Rank tests. Ranking matrix from the results of fourth-order compositional analysis of nests of radio-marked lesser prairie-chickens in the northeastern Texas panhandle 2008-2010.

Fourth-order compositional analysis ranks for cover types of radio-marked lesser prairie-chicken nests in the northeastern Texas panhandle 2008-2010. Nest survival model results for lesser prairie-chicken nests on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010. Results of brood survival models for broods of radiomarked lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010. Estimates of vital-rates of radiomarked female lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010.

107 ix Texas Tech University, R. Douglas Holt, December 2012 4. Elasticity values of individual and pooled values of vital rates based on baseline data collected from radiomarked female lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010. Mean finite growth rate () and time to quasi-extinction (<10 females) based on 10,000 simulations using differing vital rates for radiomarked female lesser prairie- chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010.

Number of observations at given distance from trial leks in the High Plains and Rolling Plains ecorgeions of Texas, USA, used to collect data to examine the influence of environmental factors on probability of detection of active lesser prairie-chicken leks. Logistic regression models describing probability of detection of trial leks in the High Plains and Rolling Plains ecorgeions of Texas, USA. 129 x Texas Tech University, R. Douglas Holt, December 2012 LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Location of Cochran, Gray, Hemphill, and Yoakum counties, Texas, USA.

Population viability analysis model matrix for radiomarked female lesser prairie- chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA. 4-stage model used to develop population viability analysis for radiomarked female lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA. Elasticity of vital rates based on baseline data collected from radiomarked female lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA 2008-2010. Elasticity of pooled vital rates based on baseline data collected from radiomarked female lesser prairie-chickens on private lands in Gray and Hemphill counties, Texas, USA, 2008-2010.

A trial lek consisting of 2 digital playback units used to assess factors influencing detectability of active lesser prairie-chicken leks in Cochran, Gray, Hemphill, and Yoakum counties, Texas, USA. Probability of detecting a trial lek in a head wind in the High Plains ecoregion of Texas, USA. Probability of detecting a trial lek in a cross wind in the High Plains ecoregion of Texas, USA. Probability of detecting a trial lek in a tail wind in the High Plains ecoregion of Texas, USA.

Probability of detecting a trial lek in a head wind in the Rolling Plains ecoregion of Texas, USA. Probability of detecting a trial lek in a cross wind in the Rolling Plains ecoregion of Texas, USA. Probability of detecting a trial lek in a tail wind in the Rolling Plains ecoregion of Texas, USA. 136 xi Texas Tech University, R.

Douglas Holt, December 2012 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION North American prairie grouse species include greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), Gunnison sage-grouse (C. minimus), sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus), greater prairie-chicken (T. cupido), and lesser prairie-chicken (T. Species of prairie grouse in North America have declined sharply over the past 3 to 4 decades (Silvy and Hagen 2004).