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A METHODOLOGY FOR VALIDATION OF INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO COASTAL-ZONE MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH-WEST SULAWESI Tien Giang Nguyen Promotion committee: Prof. Grootenboer University of Twente, chairman/secretary Prof. Augustinus University of Utrecht, promoter Prof. Hulscher University of Twente, promoter Dr.

de Kok University of Twente, assistant promoter Prof. Hoekstra University of Twente Prof. Wind University of Twente Prof. Mynett UNESCO-IHE / WL | Delft Hydraulics Prof.

de Jong University of Utrecht Dr. Titus University of Utrecht ISBN 90-365-2227-7 Printed by: PrintPartners Ipskamp, Enschede Copyright © 2005 Tien Giang Nguyen. All rights reserved. A METHODOLOGY FOR VALIDATION OF INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO COASTAL-ZONE MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH-WEST SULAWESI DISSERTATION to obtain the doctor’s degree at the University of Twente, on the authority of the rector magnificus, prof.

Zijm, on account of the decision of the graduation committee, to be publicly defended on Friday August 26, 2005 at 15.00 by Tien Giang Nguyen born on April 12, 1976 in Hanoi This dissertation has been approved by: prof. Augustinus Promoter prof. Hulscher Promoter dr. de Kok Assistant Promoter To the memory of my father Contents Preface…….

Integrated approach and Integrated Assessment…………………… 19 1. Integrated management and policy analysis………………. The problem of validating Integrated Systems Models…………………. Research aim and research questions…………………………….

Case study description…………………………………………………… 26 1. Outline of the thesis……………………………………………………… 31 2. Conceptual framework of analysis…………………………………. Procedure for validation………………………………………….

Validation of an integrated systems model for coastal-zone management using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses……………………………………. Basics for the method……………………………………………… 46 3. The testing procedure……………………………………………… 47 3. The sensitivity analysis……………………………………….

The elicitation of expert opinions……………………………. The uncertainty propagation……………………………………. The validation tests………………………………………………… 51 3. Elicitation of expert opinions……………………………………….

Parameter-Verification test…………………………………………. Behaviour-Anomaly test……………………………………………. Policy-Sensitivity test………………………………………………. Discussion and conclusions……………………………………………….

A new approach to testing an integrated water systems model using qualitative scenarios……………………………………………………. Overview of the new approach…………………………………. The detail procedure………………………………………………. The RaMCo model………………………………………………….

Land-use/land-cover change model………………………………… 70 4. Soil loss computation………………………………………………. Formulation of scenarios for testing……………………………………… 73 4. Developing qualitative scenarios for testing……………….

Translation of qualitative scenarios………………………………………. Formulation of inference rules……………………………………. Application of the inference rules………………………………. Calculation of the output value………………………………….

Testing the consistency of the scenarios…………………………… 81 4. Discussion and conclusions……………………………………………… 84 5. Validation of a fisheries model for coastal-zone management in Spermonde Archipelago using observed data…………………………………. Fisheries in the Spermonde Archipelago, Southwest Sulawesi…….

Fisheries modelling in RaMCo…………………………………. Data source and data processing……………………………………. Sate of the art………………………………………………………. The proposed method……………………………………………….

Fishery production models…………………………………………. The pattern test……………………………………………………. The accuracy test…………………………………………. The extreme condition test………………………………………….

Discussion and conclusions………………………………………………. Discussions, conclusions and recommendations……………………. Generic applicability of the methodology…………………………. Other directions for the validation of integrated systems models….

Proper use of integrated systems models…………………………. 111 Symbols…………………………………………………………………………… 123 Acronyms and abbreviations……………………. 133 About the author………………………………………………………. 139 10 Contents Preface Words are easily borrowed, but the emotional meaning from one’s heart is difficult to describe.

Therefore, I would like to ask for the forgiveness from those whose assistance cannot be appreciated in words and from those who, by any chance, I forgot to mention. First of all I would like to thank prof. Herman Wind and his wife - Joke. The interviews prof.

Wind held in Bangkok and the decision he made enabled me to be here, at Twente University, to fulfil my PhD research. Herman and Joke, I will never forget the first meeting we had in Bangkok in April, 2001. Khap khun ma khap. The next person I want to thank is dr.

Jean-Luc de Kok, my daily supervisor. His cleverness and intellectual skills have convinced me that I would be able to complete this thesis with his regular guidance. His tireless support during the four-year period of the research, in every aspect, made ‘my wish’ to come true. Jean-Luc, I am very happy to be your first PhD student.

The contents of the thesis belong to both you and me. Importantly, I would like to thank my two promoters, prof. Suzanne Hulscher and prof. Pieter Augustinus and my former promoter, prof.

Their outstanding knowledge and experience in both science and management resulted in this thesis. I would like to thank you all for that. Specifically, thank you, Pieter, for your kindness, patience and useful comments during the preparation of the manuscript. I would like to thank the Netherlands Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research (WOTRO).

The funding given to both the original Buginesia project and the resulting project, which is presented in this thesis, has been provided by this organisation. It is also necessary to mention in particular a number of people from different institutions in the Netherlands and in Indonesia, who have been actively involved in the Buginesia project and contributed to this research. From Utrecht University, dr. Milan Titus, prof.

Steven De Jong, prof. Piet Hoekstra; From ITC, dr. Sharifi and dr. Tjeerd Hobma; From UNESCO-IHE, prof.

Arthur Mynett; From other Dutch institutions: dr. Lida Pet-Soede, dr. Maya Borel Best, dr. Wim van Densen and prof.

Leontine Visser; From the University Hasanuddin (UNHAS), prof. Dadang Ahmad, prof. Alfian Noor and mr. I have learnt a lot from you all.

Thank you very much for your fruitful cooperation. Social interaction plays an important role in one’s research career. Therefore, I want to thank all colleagues inside and outside of the WEM group for making my working years here lively. Particularly, Huong Thi Thuy Phan; two pretty office-mates: Saskia and 12 Preface Schretlen; people in the soccer team of the WEM group: Jan, Daniel, Martijn Booij, Maarten, Pieter Roos, Jebbe, Pieter Oel, Andrei, Freak, Judith, Daniella, Steven,…and their partners; Roos, Rolnan, Cornelie, Judith and Wendy from the Construction and Transport groups; Our secretaries: Anke, Joke and Ellen; Yan, Dong, Ping, Chang Wei and Jan from the ‘Chinese community’.

Dank je wel and Xie xie. The work of preparing, distributing, and collecting the questionnaires from the end- users of RaMCo (Chapter 3) was done by Tessa Hofman. Arif Wismadi collected the socio-economic data for validating the model of land-use and land-cover changes (Chapter 4). Christian Loris collected the data and processed a part of them for validating the fisheries model (Chapter 5).

Gay Howells checked the English of the final manuscript. Thank the four of you for what you have done to make this thesis complete. My gratefulness goes to all of my Vietnamese friends living in the Netherlands, but particularly to Hien-Nhu, Hieu-Lam, Kim-V.Anh, Phuong-Ha, Tu-An, Duy-Chi, Thang- Mai, Trung-Thanh, Ha-Huong, Nhung, Hanh, Long, Kien, Hoa and Cuong. Dear friends, to be your friends in Twente makes me feel like being at home.

Hoang Tu and Jebbe van der Werf deserve the special thanks for what makes me ask them to be my ‘paranimfen’. Dank je wel, Jebbe, you are my closest Dutch friend. Tu, many thanks for the daily-life things we have been sharing. Almost the last person I want to thank here is my beloved girlfriend - Hue Chi.

She is always with me when I need her most. The four-year period of doing research would have been much more difficult without her. Darling, I love you so very much. Lastly but most importantly, I would like to express my deepest gratefulness to my family, including my father, Nguyen Dinh Thinh, my mother, Ly Thi Nguyet and my little sister, Nguyen Thanh Thuy.

They are the people that support me the most. Father! One paragraph of thankful words is absolutely far from enough for what you had done for me. The whole spirit of this thesis is devoted to you. In Heaven, you would be smiling….

Nguyen Tien Giang Enschede, July, 2005. General introduction Systems approach and integrated approach towards the planning and management of natural resources and environment are considered as promising approaches to achieve the sustainable development of a region, of a country, and of our common world. Consequently, an increasing number of Integrated Systems Models (ISMs) have been developed (e. Hoekstra, 1998; Turner, 2000; De Kok and Wind, 2002).

However, the scarcity of field data for both model development and model validation, the lack of knowledge about the relevant internal and external factors of the real system and the model high aggregation levels (increase in scope but decrease in detail) create a number of critical questions such as: to what extent can such models contribute to our knowledge and ability to manage our environment? Are they useful and do they have an added value in comparison with conventional process models? Centred in these questions are the two questions: What is the validity of an ISM? How can this validity be determined and established? This thesis is aimed at addressing these two questions. Rapid Assessment Model for Coastal-zone Management (RaMCo), which was developed by a Dutch-Indonesian multidisciplinary team (De Kok and Wind, 1999), serves as a case study to achieve the objective of the thesis. The theoretical justification for this choice is that RaMCo contains the typical characteristics of an Integrated Systems Model. The first characteristic is reflected in the RaMCo’s ability to take into account the interactions of socio-economic developments, biophysical conditions and policy options.

The second characteristic is the inclusion of the linkages between many processes pertaining to different scientific fields, such as marine pollution, land-use change, catchment hydrology, coastal hydrodynamics, fisheries and regional economic development. Practically, the model was chosen since its validation had not been carried out in the original project. In addition, the availability of the measured data (from 1996 until now) allows for the application of quantitative techniques which are suitable for the validation of ISMs. It is aware that, despite the typicality of RaMCo, other ISMs may differ in some aspects from the model considered.

Therefore, the generality of the validation methodology established is discussed in the final chapter of the thesis. The introductory chapter is organised as follows.2 describes the concepts of systems approach, integrated approach and how they fit into the framework of the natural resources and environmental management. The role of ISMs as tools to facilitate this integrated management is explained. Difficulties involved with validation of these models are elaborated in Section 1.

The research questions and sub-questions of the thesis are formulated in Section 1. A description of the case study is given in Section 1. The outline of the thesis is included in Section 1. Systems approach Systems approach or systemic approach was born from the cross-fertilization of several disciplines: information theory (Shannon, 1948), cybernetics (Wiener, 1948), and general systems theory (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) more than half a century ago.

As described by Rosnay (1979), it is not to be considered a "science," a "theory," or a "discipline," but a new methodology that makes possible the collection and organization of accumulated knowledge in order to increase the efficiency of our actions. The systemic approach, as opposed to the analytical approach, includes the totality of the elements in the system under study, as well as their interaction and interdependence. It is based on the conception of systems. The systems approach got its well-known status after the two publications related to the depletion of world’s natural resources (Forrester, 1971; Meadows et al.

To clarify the concept of systems approach, others approaches, with which it is often confused, are briefly mentioned. - The systemic approach goes beyond the cybernetics approach (Wiener, 1948), whose main objective is the study of control in living organisms and machines. - It must be distinguished from General Systems Theory (Von Bertalanffy, 1968), whose purpose is to describe in mathematical language the totality of systems found in nature. - It is not the same as systems analysis (Miser and Quade, 1985), a method that represents only one tool of the systemic approach.

The system analysis is elaborated later in Section 1. - The systemic approach has nothing to do with a systematic approach that confronts a problem or sets up a series of actions in sequential manner, in a detailed way, forgetting no element and leaving nothing to chance. The analytic approach seeks to reduce a system to its elementary elements in order to study them in detail and understand the types of interaction that exist between them.