Mcdonald patrick completed and approved dissertation 7 23 2014

Walden University College of Social and Behavioral Sciences This is to certify that the doctoral dissertation by Patrick McDonald has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the review committee have been made. Review Committee Dr. Linda Day, Committee Chairperson, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Dr. Raj Singh, Committee Member, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Dr.

Mi Young Lee, University Reviewer, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Chief Academic Officer Eric Riedel, Ph. Walden University 2014 Abstract The Affects of Vote by Mail on Voter Turnout, Cost of Elections, and Ballot Completion in the State of Washington from 1992 to 2012 by Patrick Joseph McDonald MPA, The Evergreen State College, 1997 BA, Saint Martin’s University, 1984 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy and Administration Walden University August 2014 Abstract Prior research on American elections over the past 2 decades demonstrates a decrease in voter participation and ballot completion, and an increase in election costs. With poll site voting, ballot shortages are common and unscrupulous poll workers are known to deny citizens the right to vote. Voting by mail has proven a viable alternative that reduces or eliminates these electoral challenges.

Oregon and Washington State are the only states where elections are conducted completely by mail. Although a number of studies have documented the impact of voting by mail in Oregon elections, only 2 minor studies have been undertaken in Washington. In contrast to highly partisan Oregon, Washington’s non-partisan electoral process is considered the future of American elections. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of voting by mail on voter turnout, cost of elections, and ballot completion in the state of Washington from 1992 to 2012.

These outcomes are considered by election administrators and legislators as essential to gauging the benefits of voting by mail over poll-site voting. The theoretical foundation for this study was Down’s voting economy theory, and Fitzgerald’s legal-institutional constraint theory. Data collected from the Washington’s Secretary of State Office included election results from 36,230,553 Washington voters who participated in either poll-site or vote- by-mail general elections from 1992 through 2012. The time-series design analysis showed that voting by mail increased voter turnout and higher ballot completion than poll site voting but it did not decrease the cost of elections.

The implications for social change include informing election administrators and legislators about the value of transitioning to all vote-by-mail elections. Finally, voting by mail enhances the opportunity for citizens to engage in democratic elections, thus influencing government and those who govern. The Affects of Vote by Mail on Voter Turnout, Cost of Elections, and Ballot Completion in the State of Washington from 1992 to 2012 by Patrick Joseph McDonald MPA, The Evergreen State College, 1997 BA, Saint Martin’s University, 1984 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy and Administration Walden University August 2014 Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to all those who work for the cause of free, fair, accessible, and transparent elections. I also honor the hundreds of election workers I had the privilege to work with during the 2005-06 and 2008-09 Iraqi national and provincial election process.

Each performed their work with constant threat of harm and death from those who opposed the right of the Iraqi people to elect their leaders. I am especially mindful of 45 Iraqi election workers who lost their lives during my time in Iraq. Acknowledgments Special thanks goes to Washington’s former Secretary of State, Sam Reed (2001 – 2013) and current Secretary of State Kim Wyman (2013 – present) who provided the support and encouragement needed to undertake this research. Shane Hamlin, Sheryl Moss, and Katie Blinn of the Secretary of State’s office, the 39 Washington State County Auditors, and staff of the Washington State Elections Division whose assistance and generosity made this dissertation possible.

Also, the time, effort and hard work by my dissertation committee chaired by Dr. Linda Day with Dr. Raj Singh who provided me with the motivation and desire to complete this work. Lastly, I am grateful to the United States Army who provided not only the funding to pursue this degree, but also the opportunity to work, during my two deployments to Iraq, with the most dedicated group of election workers at the Iraqi National Elections Commission.

Table of Contents List of Tables. vi List of Figures. vii Chapter 1: Introduction to the Study.1 Brief Summary of Related Research.2 Study Significance and Identified Gaps in Literature .4 Purpose of Study .5 Nature of Study .8 Definitions of Terms. 11 Help America Vote Act (HAVA):.

11 Hybrid Electoral Systems:. 11 Low-Intensity Election:. 11 Non-Partisan Election:. 12 Poll Book or List:.

12 Poll Site or Place:. 13 Rolling Election Day. 13 Secretary of State:. 14 Vote by Mail:.14 Scope and Delimitations .17 Social Change Implications .18 Chapter 2: Literature Review .20 Literature Search Strategy.21 Conceptual and Theoretical Framework .23 History of Vote by Mail.

25 Making Registration and Voting Easier and More Convenient. 30 Voter Turnout, Election Costs, and Ballot Completion. 32 Electoral Administration Costs. 37 Support and Opposition to All Vote by Mail Elections.

38 Popularity of Vote by Mail Elections. 39 Poll Site Issues and Election Procedure Uniformity. 41 Postal System Issues. 45 Electoral Fraud and Vote by Mail.

46 iii Impact on Civic Rituals and Political Discourse. 48 Effects on Political Campaigns. 50 Defining the Differences: Oregon and Washington State.52 Chapter 3: Research Method .54 Research Design and Rational .54 Methodology and Data Analysis .56 Sampling and Sampling Procedures. 57 Archival Data Gathering.

57 Data Analysis Plan. 58 Threats to Validity. 58 Ethical Concerns and Data Confidentiality.61 Research Question vs. 63 Time Frame for Data Collection.

63 Discrepancies from Plan Collection. 64 Data Collection and Demographics. 66 Cost of Elections .81 Chapter 5: Discussion, Conclusions, and Recommendations .85 Interpretation of Findings .87 Limitations of the Study. Voter Turnout – Presidential Elections.

Voter Turnout – Non-Presidential Elections. Election Costs and Budget Data. Statewide Ballot Initiatives and Referendum Data .123 v List of Tables Table 1 Voter Registration Totals, 1992 - 2012 .64 Table 2 Registration and Voter Turnout in General Elections, 1992 - 2012 .68 Table 3 Transition to Vote by Mail by Year and County .68 Table 4 Percent of Voters Voting by Mail by Year .70 Table 5 Vote by Mail Statistics for Presidential Election Years .71 Table 6 Vote by Mail Statistics for Non-Presidential Election Years .73 Table 7 Population and Voter Registration Statistics, 1992 - 2012. 75 Table 8 Population, Voter Registration, and Turnout, Presidential Election Years .76 Table 9 Population, Voter Registration, and Turnout, Non-Presidential Election Years .78 Table 10 Cost per Ballot with and without Inflation .75 vi List of Figures Figure 1Voter Turnout by Presidential Election Years.

67 Figure 2 Voter Turnout by non-Presidential Election Years. 72 Figure 3 Growth in Population and Voter Registration. 75 Figure 4 Growth in Population, Voter Registration and Turnout in Presidential Election Years. 76 Figure 5 Growth in Population, Voter Registration and Turnout in non-Presidential Election Years.

77 Figure 6 Cost per Ballot and Trend line. 79 Figure 7 Ballot Completion Rates on Statewide Measures. 81 vii 1 Chapter 1: Introduction to the Study Background The purpose of this research was to gain a greater understanding of the effect of Washington State’s recently implemented all-vote by mail election process on voter turnout, election costs, and ballot completion by analyzing electoral data over a 20-year period from 1992 through 2012. The first time Washington State permitted registered voters to request a permanent absentee ballot without a reason was 1993 (Washington State Secretary of State, 2007).

By 2010, the state had entirely switched to all vote by mail elections. Like the state of Oregon, Washington voters embraced vote by mail in large numbers when given the choice, but unlike Oregon’s rapid transition to vote by mail, Washington’s system was gradually introduced over 18 years. In addition, Oregon’s transition to vote by mail has been the subject of more than 20 major studies, whereas Washington has only two of any consequence. This study builds on that previous voter participation research by updating the previous studies while analyzing not only voter turnout, but cost of elections and ballot completion as well.

Chapter 1 consists of the background, purpose, research questions, and discussion of the conceptual and theoretical frameworks, nature of the study, definitions, assumptions, and scope, and closes with a comment on the significance of the study. Elections have long been a force for social change. As Shafritz (1993) commented, for many it may be the only interaction a citizen has with influencing or reforming government policy. As Shafritz (1993) notes, by providing an alternative to single-day poll site voting could positively influence voter participation levels, lower the 2 cost of elections, and increase the ability of voters to complete their ballots at a higher rate than at poll sites.

Brief Summary of Related Research Selected articles relating to vote by mail are as follows: 1. Berinsky, Burns, and Traugott (2001) provide a revealing look into the impact of vote by mail on the nation’s electoral system. Hamilton (2008) analyzes and compares vote by mail and poll site voting from the perspective of the election administrator. Karp, and Banducci (2000), Southwell and Burchett (2000), Southwell (2004) and Southwell (2011), present detailed research into Oregon’s vote by mail experience.

Magley (1987) and McDonald and Popkin (2001) developed an extensive analysis of voter participation levels among permanent absentee voters. McDonald and Tolbert (2012) contend that the electoral process changed in a vote by mail environment to include the way a voter votes, the impact on electoral costs, and political campaigns. Gerber, et al (2013) present a detailed analysis of the implementation of Washington’s gradual transformation from poll sites to all vote-by-mail on the country level. Fitzgerald (2005) presents the institutional theory of voter participation where governmental institutions can impact voter turnout by making voter 3 registion and the act of voting easier or more difficult through implementation of electional laws and procedures.

Downs (1957) presents an economic theory of voter participation where a voter weighs their intention to vote against the cost of voting. Study Significance and Identified Gaps in Literature The research for this dissertation is unique in its focus on the under researched Washington State vote by mail election process. It contributes to the body of knowledge for utilization by state and local government policy makers who are considering the implementation of vote by mail within their jurisdictions. While research on Oregon’s vote by mail system, the only other state besides Washington without polling sites, has been extensive, only two peer-reviewed studies exist on vote by mail in Washington State.

One dealt primarily with the ethical and political motives behind election reform initiatives in the state (Wang, 2006), and the other focused on the underlying transition to vote by mail in Washington State from the perspective of county election administrators (Gerber, et al, 2013). In addition, Washington and Oregon have very different political histories, with Washington having a less partisan and far more open electoral system, as documented in a study by the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS, 2012). Historically, unlike Oregon, Washingtonians have never declared their political party preference and, except for a single primary election in 2004; voters have never been obligated to choose a particular party ballot during a primary election. In addition, Washington State’s primary system does not recognize political parties (Washington State Secretary of State, 2007).

It advances the top two vote recipients to the general 4 election.