Tác động của toàn cầu hóa tới Trung Đông - Nghiên cứu của David Lee Richardson

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS HIGHLIGHTING EFFECTS OF CURRENT GLOBALIZATION TENETS, NAMELY DEMOCRACY, CAPITALISM, AND CULTURAL TRANSFORMATION, ON THE ARAB ISLAMIC MIDDLE EAST by David Lee Richardson Jr. June 2009 Thesis Co-Advisors: Robert Looney Abbas Kadhim Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503.

AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2009 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Highlighting Effects of Current Globalization 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Tenets, Namely Democracy, Capitalism, and Cultural Transformation, on the Arab Islamic Middle East.

PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11.

SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis examines the shape of globalization in the Middle East, specifically with respect to three major elements of globalization, those of politics, economics, and culture.

This thesis attempts to shed light on the importance and difficulties of fostering positive conditions, which could facilitate favorable terms for Islamic Arabs in the Middle East to fully embrace current globalization, thus increasing the region’s and inevitably the world’s prosperity and stability. Moreover, this thesis also addresses and analyzes the compatibility of Islamic Arabs in the Middle East with current globalization trends. Acknowledging that Middle Eastern globalization is a fairly large subject to cover, the scope of this research has been narrowed to answer the question of whether or not the acceptance of democracy, capitalism and cultural changes by Arab Islamic Middle Eastern societies, specifically the secular authoritarian regimes and the opposing Islamists organizations, could increase the prosperity and stability within the region, and if so, bring to light the obstacles which stand in the way of such progress. SUBJECT TERMS Middle East, Globalization, Democracy, Capitalism, Cultural, Islam, 15.

NUMBER OF Arabs, Muslims, Terrorism PAGES 137 16. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited HIGHLIGHTING EFFECTS OF CURRENT GLOBALIZATION TENETS, NAMELY DEMOCRACY, CAPITALISM, AND CULTURAL TRANSFORMATION, ON THE ARAB ISLAMIC MIDDLE EAST David L.

Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B., United States Naval Academy, 1996 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2009 Author: David L. Approved by: Robert Looney Thesis Co-Advisor Abbas Kadhim Thesis Co-Advisor Harold A. Trinkunas, PhD Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis examines the shape of globalization in the Middle East, specifically with respect to three major elements of globalization, those of politics, economics, and culture. This thesis attempts to shed light on the importance and difficulties of fostering positive conditions, which could facilitate favorable terms for Islamic Arabs in the Middle East to fully embrace current globalization, thus increasing the region’s and inevitably the world’s prosperity and stability.

Moreover, this thesis also addresses and analyzes the compatibility of Islamic Arabs in the Middle East with current globalization trends. Acknowledging that Middle Eastern globalization is a fairly large subject to cover, the scope of this research has been narrowed to answer the question of whether or not the acceptance of democracy, capitalism and cultural changes by Arab Islamic Middle Eastern societies, specifically the secular authoritarian regimes and the opposing Islamists organizations, could increase the prosperity and stability within the region, and if so, bring to light the obstacles which stand in the way of such progress. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION.

PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES. METHODS AND SOURCES. GLOBALIZATION AND THE MIDDLE EAST. CULTURAL MODERNITY AND GLOBALIZATION.

IS GLOBALIZATION A PARADOX OR AN ANSWER?. GLOBALIZATION AND THE ISLAMIC “FATS”. CAN GLOBALIZATION ADDRESS THE CAUSES OF MIDDLE EAST TERRORISM?. EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION ON MIDDLE EAST POLITICS.

POLITICS AND GLOBALIZATION. DEMOCRATIZATION WITH PROPER AND IMPROPER POLITICAL LEARNING. IS DEMOCRATIZATION DOOMED IN THE MIDDLE EAST?. Islamists and Democracy.

Is Democratization Really Doomed in the Middle East?. Authoritarian Elites and Power in the Middle East. Are Middle Eastern Societies Trapped?. DEMOCRATIC POLITICS AND TERRORISM.

IS DIPLOMACY USEFUL WHEN CONFRONTING VIOLENT EXTREMIST GROUPS?. The Difference between Dealing with State and Non State Organizations. The Islamic Political Spectrum. Realistic and Unrealistic Objectives.

STRONG AND WEAK STATES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION ON MIDDLE EAST ECONOMICS. ECONOMICS AND GLOBALIZATION. MIDDLE EASTERN ECONOMICS.

DEMOCRACY TO CAPITALISM. I Need You, You Need Me. Balancing the Power of Influence. WHY HAVE MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIES NOT DIVERSIFIED?.

IS THE MIDDLE EAST AT A TIPPING POINT?. Are Arab Economies at a Tipping Point?. Can We Speak of Arab Economies as a Whole?. CASE STUDY: COMPARING AND CONTRASTING HOW SAUDI ARABIA AND QATAR HAVE DEALT WITH THE THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION.

Domestic, Regional and International Factors which Induced the Selection of this Combination of Models. Opposition to Models within Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Weaknesses of Models. How Have Saudi Arabia and Qatar Dealt with Key Developmental Challenges?.

Comparing the Suitability and Sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s and Qatar’s Strategies by in Grappling with Globalization. GLOBAL DATA ANALYSIS. EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION ON MIDDLE EAST CULTURE. GETTING ON THE GLOBALIZATION TRAIN.

MEDIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST. Middle Eastern Love and Hate. Western Love and Hate. ADDRESSING THE CAUSES AND CONDITIONS OF TERRORISM.

UNDERSTANDING THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT. Periods of Conflict. Pre-20th Century. British Directive Period (1920–1948).

United Nations partition (1948–2000). The Twenty-First Century and the Second Intifada (2000–Present) .113 LIST OF REFERENCES .117 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST .121 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Political Islamic Spectrum. The Islamic Right Wing.

The Violent Islamic Right Wing. The Strong State. The Weak State. Top Ten World Religions.

Country Muslim Percentage (2000). State Muslim Percentage (2007). Globalization Index vs. State Muslim Percentages (2007).70 ix THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK x LIST OF TABLES Table 1.

2000 GDP and Muslim Percentage Data (Continued from Table 1). 2007 GDP and Muslim Percentage Data. 2007 GDP and Muslim Percentage Data (Continued from Table 3). Globalization Index and Muslim Percentage 2007 Data .76 xi THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my family and friends for their support and patience during the work in performing this thesis.

I also would like to acknowledge and thank Professor Robert Looney and Professor Abbas Kadhim for their guidance, counseling, and leadership of which they provided an immense amount. xiii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xiv I. INTRODUCTION In Search of World Peace and Prosperity through the Embracement of Globalization in the Arab Islamic Middle East A steadfast concert for peace can never be maintained except by a partnership of democratic nations. (world) peace must be planted upon the tested foundations of political liberty.1 President Woodrow Wilson A.

MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION This thesis examines the shape of globalization in the Middle East, specifically with respect to three major elements of globalization, those of politics, economics, and culture. This thesis attempts to shed light on the importance and difficulties of fostering positive conditions, which could facilitate favorable terms for Islamic Arabs in the Middle East to fully embrace current globalization, thus increasing the region’s and inevitably the world’s prosperity and stability. Moreover, this thesis also addresses and analyzes the compatibility of Islamic Arabs in the Middle East with current globalization trends. Acknowledging that Middle Eastern globalization is a fairly large subject to cover, the scope of this research has been narrowed to answer the question of whether or not the acceptance of democracy, capitalism and cultural changes by Arab Islamic Middle Eastern societies, specifically the secular authoritarian regimes and the opposing Islamists organizations, could increase the prosperity and stability within the region, and if so, bring to light the obstacles which stand in the way of such progress.

IMPORTANCE The topic of this thesis originates from the issues which the world community, in general, has encountered due to the regional stagnation of the Middle East, which is attributable to the increased political, economic, and cultural turmoil created partly by the Islamists and the reactionary and irreversible military and police retaliatory actions that 1 President Woodrow Wilson's “Declaration of War Message to Congress,” April 2, 1917; Records of the United States Senate; Record Group 46; National Archives. 1 have occurred within the Muslim population of the Middle East. The objective of this thesis is to highlight the affects of current globalization and bring to ideas and solutions which could potentially help to marginalize or moderate hostility within the region, leaving more time, energy, and resources for the enrichment of the Muslim population at large, the Middle East region, and the world as a whole. If we look at this crisis through a political, economical, and cultural lens, we may be able to postulate that Islamic Arabs could eventual and fully accept the influence of current globalization into the societies in which they reside.

If acceptance of globalization can be obtained successfully in the Middle East, the effects of positive economic growth, political autonomy, and cultural modernity could light the pathway for Islamic Arab populations on the road to a better quality of life. Although easier said than done, in order to pursue this path to a better life, among many other issues, secular authoritarian regimes will need to adjust the political structure, Islamists will need to moderate there political agendas, and culture shifts within the populous will need to take place. On the other hand, globalization is not just a one way street, and there is another variable in this equation. The states which are encouraging, fostering, and promoting current globalization and all its elements around the world have a responsibility too.

Globalization will not be accepted at face value nor will it be accepted voluntarily, and by no means should it be forced upon the Middle East. Forcing globalization onto societies that are neither prepared for nor educated to the political, economical, and cultural changes that must preemptively take place in order to successfully globalize, will not only be counter productive to the globalization process, but will make it more difficult and possibly impossible to construct the necessary foundation upon which productivity and prosperity are in present day being built upon. Therefore, it is the responsibility of those encouraging globalization, in this case mainly western powers, to study and understand the Middle Eastern societies which hinder globalization. Those powers must understand the history, personality, and culture of those societies, and create relationships which will aid in the coordination of society tailored globalization learning.

Lastly, and more importantly, Middle Eastern societies must be made aware and see the benefits of 2 fostering current globalization.