Luận án về hỗ trợ phát triển hiệu quả ở Lào: Ý nghĩa chính sách cho phát triển ngành năng lượng

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING LAO NATIONALUNIVERSITY NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY Khammany INTHIRATH EFFECTIVE AID COORDINATION IN LAO PDR: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENT Specialty : Investment Economics (Development Economics) Code : 62. Nguyen Thanh Ha A dissertation submitted to the National Economics University in fulfillment of requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Vientiane, 2013 Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 ii DECLARATION I hereby declare that this dissertation is my own work and effort. The dissertation has not been submitted anywhere for any award. All the sources of information used have been well acknowledged.

Date: Signature: Khammany INTHIRATH Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to sincerely thank many people whom provided much support into producing this thesis and paving the way for the research topic to be one of the significant findings. I wish to express my profound gratitude to my supervisor Associate Professor Dr. NGUYEN Thanh Ha, National Economics University (Vietnam), for his great support and guidance throughout my study. His encouragement and constant attention contributed significantly to the outcome of this research.

I am grateful to my sponsors such as the Ministry of Energy and Mining and the National University of Laos in enabling me to achieve a higher education at National Economics University, Vietnam. Many thanks to all interviewees whom shared knowledge and ideas. My sincere thanks out to the Lao Government officers from the Government Office, Ministry of Energy and Mines, H. Soulivong DARAVONG, Minister of Energy and Mines, etc and many other officers whom were involved in my research.

The European Commission Lao PDR Office international staff, the World Bank residential office and United Nations Development Programme staff who are involved in the aid effectiveness agenda in Laos and friends from development communities were all of assistance in this reseach. Last but not least, many thanks are due to my wife and my family who provided me endless love with support and strength through out of my life. Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS.Error! Bookmark not defined.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ON ODA COORDINATION EFFECTIVENESS. Defining Official Development Assistance (ODA). Aid coordination and its effectiveness. Dimensions of Development Assistance Coordination.

Sector Wide Approach and Programme Based Approach. Principles of Effective Aid Coordination. KEY LESSONS LEARNT FOR LAO PDR. Lesson from Vietnam.

Lesson from Timor L’Este. HOW ODA COORDINATION IMPLEMENTED IN LAO. Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Vientiane Declaration and Country Action Plan (CAP).

The Round Table Meeting/Process (RTM/RTP).30 Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail. Sector Working Groups (SWGs). Current ODA in Lao P. Effort of Government of Lao PDR.

Coordination in Practice. Sectorial Working Groups (SWGs). Evolution of Current Coordination System. OECD DAC Survey.

International Development Agencies. POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. Power Sector Policy. Power Sector Strategy towards 2025.

Regional Coordination Effort.84 Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 vi ABBREVIATION ADB Asian Development Bank AI Avian Influenza AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome AP Action Plan CAP Country Action Plan CAW Country Analytic Work CDF Capacity Development Framework CPI Committee for Planning and Investment DAC Development Assistance Committee DIC Department of International Cooperation (MoFA) DP Development Partner DSA Daily Subsistence Allowance EC European Commission FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FY Fiscal Year FW Framework GoL Government of Lao PDR HCS Hanoi Core Statement HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus INTOSAI International Organization of Supreme Audit Institution Lao NCAW Lao National Commission for the Advancement ofWomen LWU Lao Women’s Union MAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 vii MCTPC Ministry of Construction, Transport, Post and Communications MDG Millennium Development Goals MoE Ministry of Education MoF Ministry of Finance MoFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoH Ministry of Health MoU Memorandum of Understanding MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework NGO Non-Government Organization NSEDP National Socio-Economic Development Plan ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PACSA Public Administration and Civil Service Authority PBA Program Based Approach PEMSP Public Expenditure Management Strengthening Program PFM Public Financial Management PGAE Partnership Group on Aid Effectiveness PIP Public Investment Program PIU Project Implementation Unit PMU Project Management Unit PrMO Procurement Monitoring Office RTIM Round Table Information/Implementation Meeting RTM Round Table Meeting SIDA Swedish International Development Agency Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 viii STEA Science, Technology and Environment Association SWG Sector Working Group TC Technical Cooperation TSA Treasury Single Account UNCT United Nations Country Team UNDP United Nations Development Program UNFPA United National Population Fund UXO Unexploded Ordinance VD Vientiane Declaration (on Aid Effectiveness) WB World Bank WHO World Health Organization Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 ix ABSTRACT Lao PDR has a lengthy history, abundant and natural-resource-rich country with plenty of minerals, rivers and creeks which are seen to be hidden strengths for the development of power, particularly hydropower, thermal, wind power, and solar energy. Total energy demand of the Lao People's Democratic Republic was 2.4 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2010, with an annual increment of 3 to 4% in parallel.with stable economic growth. Therefore, it is estimated that total energy demand in 2025 will be 6.4 million tons, approximately 2.6 times current demand. In terms of sector-wise demand, the industrial sector accounts for about 31%, the transportation sector for about 29%, the residential sector for about 29%, the commercial sector for about 10%, and the agricultural sector for about 1%.

Among these, the industrial sector and the transportation sector, in particular, show higher annual increases of l5% and 8%, respectively. These are sectors where remarkable growth of demand is expected. Currently, the major energy supply sources are firewood/charcoal (about 47%), petroleum (about l9%), and hydropower (about 19%). However, in view of a sharp rise in energy consumption in the transportation and the industrial sectors, it is thought that the petroleum contribution of overall energy sources will be about 60% in 2025.

In addition, the share of electricity is expected to grow substantially as the electrification rate increases from the current level of abofi 70% to 90% in 2020, and electricity consumption will increase sharply due to increasing use of home appliances. The Government of Lao PDR is expected to establish institutions to secure energy efficiently by making reliable energy demand forecasts and formulating an appropriate energy policy and supply pian. The purpose of this research is to find what is “effective aid coordination” particularly drawing from the case study of Lao PDR and lessons from successful cases Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 x and what possible recommendations for power sector development are. The study explore extensive literature in aid effectiveness, with an in-depth interview with the managers, leaders, practitioners etc.

Information synthesis is used in to analyze the data. It is proposed that a solution to the problem of poor delivery of ODA is that the Lao PDR governement, in general and power sector, in particular must improve its ODA spending systems and incorporate aid budgets into the national budget and development plans. It is vital to encourage the Government of Lao PDR to lead their own development agenda and support development according to local priorities. The results suggest that it is not just a matter of coordinating aid effectively, but the aid industry needs the right capacity and people to be involved.

Capacity building is much needed within the recipient national offices as well as many of the international donor agencies. This would allow the local government to take the lead and prioritize the commitments signed in the Paris Declaration, the Vientiane Declaration and the Millennium Development Goals. It is recommended by many practitioners that the number of agencies working in decision making processes in the aid effectiveness agenda in Lao PDR should be limited to reduce transaction costs and promote clear communication within the development community. However different environments such as Timor L’Este, suggests that civil society should be involved more and that donor agencies should not take the lead in aid delivery.

The key point to be learnt is that ODA needs to enhance its efficiency through the best use of limited resources, aligning with national planning, programming, monitoring and reporting processes, strategic documents, and priorities. There should be flexibility to establish and abolish donor coordination groups, avoiding administrative overburden of public administration staff, while attempting to comply with donor requirements, established systems and procedures for programming of donor’s funds. The effective use of existing national planning, monitoring structures, equipped with national leadership and ownership in aid coordination should be taken into account. Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 xi RATIONALE As a country condition of mountainously and rich of water resources, Lao PDR is having 23,000 MW exploitable hydro power potential.

With a quick development of economic and government policy on attraction of the foreign investment, those hydropower potential has been step to step developed for both domestic consumption and export for country income generation. Continue of economic growth is needed to alleviate poverty and achieve social development goals but the policy options for achieving this are constrained by the small domestic economy and limited trade opportunities. Therefore, hydropower projects are a development opportunity for both local and central of Lao PDR in overall development. The power policy of Lao government aim to establish a priority policy of developing the country’s potential energy resources to provide a low cost source of energy that can meet export and domestic policy objectives and promotion of sustainable development.

The country now has installed power generation capacity of over 3,000 MW, of more than 13 hydro power projects or about 6,000 MW are under construction and more than 6,000 MW are under various stages of development by 2025, it is expected that export would be 80-85% of developed capacities. To transmit of those power there are a strategy of domestic and international grid development where it can be divided into domestic interconnection (connection of Northern to Southern part of Lao PDR) and regional interconnection (connection of Lao PDR to neighboring countries for power exporting). The Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) was signed for supply of power between Lao and Thailand are 7,000 MW and 5,000 MW between Lao and Vietnam by 2020. For Lao PDR, Official Development Assistance (ODA) is very important mechanism to promote the potential of investment fund, technology, marketing, management experiences, take part of job creation, increase of income level, upgrade of country development level.

Therefore, promotion and attraction of ODA Viết thuê luận văn thạc sĩ, luận án tiến sỉ - Luận Văn A-Z Mail: luanvanaz@gmail.399 xii and FDI is become one of priority policy of party and government of Lao PDR. Promotion of the ODA into Lao for development of important sectors; potential sectors are essential necessary for current situation, especially for development of energy sectors because this sector is an major part of country socio-economic development; it is a necessary of living condition of the people, generate income from export of surplus power from domestic use to neighboring country, creation for income from job opportunity for workers. Together with those, it is also a factor contribute to promote other sector development as well. Currently in the world, there are many type of energy; for Law PDR, with geographic condition, we are having of river which is potential of hydropower development.